2012 Oscar Analysis

Welcome to the first annual "Aisle of Mann Academy Award Analysis" we will be going over each major category and who will win and who I think should actually win, whether they were actually nominated or not!


BEST ACTOR

Nominees: Daniel Day Lewis  "Lincoln", Bradley Cooper "Silver Linings Playbook", Hugh Jackman "Les Miserables", Joaquin Phoenix "The Master", Denzel Washington "Flight"

Who will win: Daniel Day Lewis, Daniel Day Lewis and oh yeah, Daniel Day Lewis

Who should win: Daniel Day Lewis (Easiest bet of the night)

Analysis: The best actor category is loaded this year, I could make easy arguments as to why each actor is deserving of the statue unfortunately the four others have to go up against Daniel Day Lewis. Lewis and Washington are the two front runners as they have both won Oscars multiple times, Lewis gets the edge because he is the only one here playing a real person and if you 've seen the movie you know, the dude IS Abraham Lincoln! Bradley Cooper could be the dark horse here, especially if "Silver Linings Playbook" pulls upsets in other categories (more on that later). Joaquin Phoenix might have actually given the best performance out of anyone this year but unfortunately his movie is in the "love it or loathe it" category and after all the bashing against the Academy during the press tour for "The Master" he should really be happy he even got an invite. Hugh Jackman can definitely sing but his victory should just be the fact that he can now have "Academy Award Nominee" placed in front of his name when he makes another "Wolverine" movie, or until they make a musical out of "Crocodile Dundee"


BEST ACTRESS

Nominees: Jessica Chastain "Zero Dark Thirty", Jennifer Lawrence "Silver Linings Playbook", Emmanuelle Riva "Amour", Naomi Watts "The Impossible", Quvenzhané Wallis "Beasts of the Southern Wild"

Who will win: Jennifer Lawrence

Who should win: Jennifer Lawrence

Analysis: Full disclosure: at time of writing this I have actually only seen one of these performances (Jennifer Lawrence). Another two horse race here and its between Chastain and Lawrence. Since Julia Roberts is just old and Reese Witherspoon forgot how to make movies people actually went to Hollywood has been looking for the next "America's Sweetheart" Lawrence is poised to take this title as someone who can actually act and make blockbuster movies. She's young, She's gorgeous, she wins the Oscar. I get a strong Meryl Streepian vibe from Jessica Chastain, I think she will be around for quite awhile and have a chance to win soon and as great as it is to see a female nominated in a somewhat "action" film she isn't winning. Its nice to see Naomi Watts still around, she really should have won for "21 Grams" a few years back. As for the last two what can I say, one is 85 and the oldest nominee ever in the lead actress category, and its an unwritten rule that if I can't pronounce your first name you cant win an Oscar, sorry Quvenzhané Wallis.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Nominees: Alan Arkin "Argo", Robert De Niro "Silver Linings Playbook", Tommy Lee Jones "Lincoln", Phillip Seymour Hoffman "The Master", Christoph Waltz "Django Unchained"

Who will win: Tommy Lee Jones

Who should win: Robert De Niro  (Since Leonardo DiCaprio got snubbed)

Analysis: This is easily my favorite category this year, and the hardest to predict. My personal choice would have been Leo in "Django", Christoph Waltz is great though and I'm glad that at least someone from the cast got recognized. He has won previously and it was for a Quentin Tarantino movie, no deja vu here. Phillip Seymour Hoffman is going to have the same problem that Joaquin Phoenix is having, great performance but there are a lot of people who absolutely despise "The Master" (fools). The race is between veterans Robert De Niro, Alan Arkin and Tommy Lee Jones. Arkin is a scene stealer in "Argo" but it was a limited role. Jones and De Niro are essential in their respected roles though I actually would have liked to have seen Jones nominated in "Hope Springs" over "Lincoln" as in that role he really plays against type to fantastic results. De Niro is just De Niro and after making some horrible film choices (basically EVERYTHING after Meet the Parents) he shows in "Silver Linings" why he is in fact the true "Master".


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Nominees: Sally Field "Lincoln", Anne Hathaway "Les Miserables", Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook", Amy Adams "The Master", Helen Hunt "The Sessions"

Who will win: Anne Hathaway (ugh)

Who should win: Amy Adams "The Master"

Analysis: Get ready for the most annoying acceptance speech of the night thanks to Anne Hathaway who like Daniel Day Lewis in "Lincoln" is almost a stone cold lock to get her first Oscar. I didn't dislike Hathaway's performance it just thought it was overhyped, her performance of "I Dreamed a Dream" is really the only reason she is even nominated (The Dark Knight Rises is the much meatier, more deserving role of her this year that should have gotten recognized). Sally Field is the next closest for "Lincoln" but the old vote can only get you so far, Field maybe liked, just not that much this year. Amy Adams would get my vote, her turn in "The Master" is quiet and nuanced and she is just as impressive as her juggernaut male co stars. I absolutely loved Jacki Weaver in "Silver Linings" her role was limited though so not much chance here. I didn't see Helen Hunt in "The Sessions" but I understand that it was very "brave" of her to get naked in the multiple sex scenes that are in this movie and also I understand that Helen Hunt is very excited that people still know she is still around, maybe Twister 2: The Twistering can finally get the greenlight!


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Nominees: Argo, Lincoln, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Life of Pi, Silver Linings Playbook

Who will win: David Magee for "Life of Pi"

Who should win: Chris Terrio for "Argo"

Analysis: I haven't read or seen "Life of Pi" but I do know that its about a kid on a lifeboat with a tiger, if you can make a two hour movie out of that and end up with 11 total Oscar nomination you have to get at least one major award out of it and this is Pi's best chance outside of the technical categories. "Argo" was both nerve rackingly tense and hilarious and harkened back to the heyday of 1970's thrillers, "Lincoln" is very topical and sturdy but is a little too much like a history lesson in parts which is directly the fault of the script. Comedy very rarely wins in the adapted category so that cancels "Silver Linings" out and just forget about "Beasts" the nomination is truly the award for this Sundance favorite.


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Nominees: Moonrise Kingdom, Zero Dark Thirty, Django Unchained, Flight, Amour

Who will win: Mark Boal for "Zero Dark Thirty"

Who should win: Quentin Tarantino for "Django Unchained"

Analysis: As I stated in my review of "Django Unchained" review they should just rename the best original screenplay award the "Tarantino" so with him being nominated here you know who I'm pulling for, Django is easily the most original film of the year. I do however think "Zero Dark Thirty" takes this award. Epic in its scope the ten year hunt for Bin Laden cant be anything if ambitious and even with all the criticism as to how "true" some true event are here I think this is where it will get recognized. If "Django" was easily the most original film of the year than "Moonrise Kingdom" is easily my least favorite Wes Anderson movie-shouldn't be here. "Flight" is an overall "good" movie with a GREAT lead performance, if Denzel should be able to pull off some monumental upset in the lead actor race he should buy his screenwriter a house or something. "Amour" is a foreign language film and while I'd place my bet on it to win best foreign language film its the longest of long shots here.

BEST DIRECTOR

Nominees: Steven Spielberg "Lincoln, Michael Haneke "Amour", Ang Lee "Life of Pi", David O. Russel "Silver Linings Playbook", Benh Zeitlin "Beasts of the Southern Wild"


Who will win: Steven Spielberg "Lincoln"

Who should win: Ben Affleck "Argo" or Kathryn Bigelow "Zero Dark Thirty" (both not nominated)

Analysis: You love Steven Spielberg, I love Steven Spielberg, we all love Steven Spielberg because of this fact and the fact that with "Lincoln" he reminded us all that he can still make a good movie that doesn't involve aliens he takes home his third directing statue, I'm not going to waste your time with going into why the others actually nominated wont win against the might Spielberg, lets talk about who wasn't nominated. Had Ben Affleck been nominated I'd put him as the front runner, "Argo" is a game changer both for himself and as to what types of movies are greenlit in Hollywood and with nominations for the film in writing and best picture the fact that Affleck was not at the very least nominated is a spit in the fact....Almost like how Kathryn Bigelow must be feeling now. Its well known that Bigelow became the first woman to win best director for "The Hurt Locker"(it will always be a strange and wonderful irony that the director of "Point Break" has a best director statue) she has followed up that with the story of the hunt and subsequent killing of arguably the greatest real life villain in our modern era and without even seeing it yet I can assure you she was overlooked.

BEST PICTURE

Nominees: Zero Dark Thirty, Life of Pi, Argo, Lincoln, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Silver Linings Playbook, Amour, Les Miserables, Django Unchained

Who will win: Lincoln

Who should win: Silver Linings Playbook

I almost put "Silver Linings" in the "will win" category as well. This movie, along with being my favorite of the year has serious dark horse potential-especially if it picks up more than one acting award along the course of the evening. "Argo" and Zero Dark Thirty" basically cancel themselves out of the race as they are similar in subject matter. The battle is really between "Lincoln" and "Life of Pi" I'm giving the edge to "Lincoln" as it is the safe pick and though its no groundbreaking piece of film everything about it is excellent in its execution. I wish "Django" could have been my pick but the last half hour really disappointed me and while I think its the most original film of the year, its not the best. The casual moviegoer will probably be hoping that "Les Miserables" wins, while I didn't hate the movie its not one of the years best and if it were able to steal a victory it would be a black eye in an otherwise great year for moviemaking. I do really look forward to seeing "Amour" eventually when it finally opens somewhere other than New York or Los Angeles, it could actually be the best of them all but I like most others can't say because its not available. "Beasts of Southern Wild" what can I say, I've typed your name more than I ever thought I would. That alone should be a notch in your belt.